The big question still is just what can we expect as we cross over into the year 2000. The federal government while attempting to minimize fears in the public sector still encourages a certain amount of preparedness on the part of the public. They recommend that you prepare for the new year as you would for a natural disaster; stocking up candles and blankets, at least 4 days to a weeks worth of nonperishable food and cash; and also recommend getting an accurate accounting of your banking and credit card balances, insurance information, and even your medical reports. When was the last time you did that because a hurricane was forecast? While not even close to the most extreme gloom and doom predictions, this is still somewhat unsettling to many given the source. If the government is willing to concede that much, goes the logic, just how bad is it REALLY going to be?

Though a great deal has been said and written on the subject, including within these pages, we thought an update from a variety of sources might give us perspective as we close in on the end of the decade, century, millennia.


Y2K: Everyone Knows, Few Are Worried
By Sylvia Dennis

A report by CDB (Creamer, Dickson, Basford) Research and Consulting notes 91 percent of US adults are aware of the Y2K IT issue, but only 22 percent of them are "very concerned" about the problem.

Ann Middleman, the firm's vice president, said that the report suggests that the more affluent segments of society may be knowledgeable enough about computers "to feel confident that the dire predictions we've been hearing are exaggerated."

"On the other hand, they may be too complacent - only time will tell," she said, adding that, in spite of this carefree attitude, most people recognize that there are likely to be some disruptions at the turn of the century.

The firm's research found that more than four out of five people (85 percent) identified some area of life that might experience problems. However, there was no single area that worried a majority, even among those who are most concerned about Y2K in general.

About one in three people are worried that financial services will be adversely affected (32 percent).

CDB's research noted that younger people are more likely to be concerned about disruptions in this area than older people (38 percent of "Gen-Xers" vs. 25 percent of the mature market).

The study also found that more than half of the respondents (52 percent) were "unconcerned" about the issue. The educated and affluent seem to be even less concerned about potential disruptions to daily life by Y2K than others.

One out of four high school graduates (26 percent) are concerned, but only one in five who have at least some college education (20 percent) feel as worried. The difference is even greater among income groups. Although one in four people with less than $45,000 in annual income are very concerned (26 percent), only half as many people with annual household incomes of at least $75,000 are concerned (13 percent).

Middleman said that almost one in five people worry that healthcare services will be disrupted at the millennium (18 percent). Not surprisingly, young people are the least likely to be concerned (10 percent) about disruption of these services.

On the other hand, both Baby Boomers and older adults are equally concerned about healthcare services (23 percent and 22 percent, respectively).

Telecommunications disruptions worry 20 percent of the people, but the most basic needs - food and public safety - concern fewer than one in 10 people.

"As news has gotten out, so has information about the measures being taken by the government and the private sector to avoid major problems in the distribution of food, water, energy, and other modern necessities," said Middleman.

CDB Research's Web site is at http://www.cbdresearch.com .


Managing your money for Y2K
By Sandra Block

"The millennium crash is inevitable and unavoidable. When it does come, its massive power will be incomprehensible as well as devastating."
Jake Bernstein; Beat the Millennium Crash.

"Have extra blankets, coats, hats, and gloves."
American Red Cross; "Y2K: What You Should Know."

If you're planning to hike the Appalachian Trail this fall, by all means stock up on water filters and beef jerky. But if you're hoarding provisions in anticipation of a Y2K calamity, you're probably wasting your money. And if you're swapping your stocks and mutual funds for cash and gold, you're putting your personal safety and financial future at risk.

That's the message Jeffrey Berg, director of Salomon Smith Barney's Year 2000 Project, is trying to impress on investors, but it's not always easy. The notion that computers around the world could crash on Jan. 1, 2000, touches on our worst fears of technology run amok.

Those fears are stoked by a rising pile of Y2K preparedness books, newsletters and Internet sites. Amazon.com lists more than 100 books related to Y2K, including Y2K Kitchen: The Joy of Cooking in a Crisis.

But despite numerous allusions to natural disasters, Y2K won't leave you shivering in the cold without potable water, Berg says. At worst, it will lead to minor annoyances, such as billing errors and inoperable check-cashing machines, he says. Sort of like life in France, without the good cheese.

Berg's Y2K odyssey began several months ago when a Salomon Smith Barney broker in Midland, Texas, asked him to address a group of nervous clients. More than 200 investors showed up to hear what Berg had to say.

Since then, he's addressed thousands of investors at packed seminars across the USA. Wherever he goes, the questions are similar, he says. People want to know if they should sell their stocks and mutual funds before Dec. 31.

Berg strongly advises against such drastic measures. Even if you don't lose money by being out of the market, you could end up paying whopping capital gains taxes. And he disputes forecasts of a major market meltdown during the fourth quarter.

Berg does offer several common sense ways to prepare for Y2K, none of which involves stockpiling Spam:

---Balance your checkbook. Even when their systems are running smoothly, banks can make errors, and Y2K problems could increase the potential for mistakes. While that's unlikely, it's good to have a backup, just in case, he says.

---Pay off credit card balances before the end of the year. Y2K-related errors could cause credit card companies to miscalculate the amount of interest you owe.

---Pay your monthly bills at the beginning of December, rather than the end of the month. That way, your checks should clear before the end of the year, reducing the potential for billing errors.

---Toward the end of 1999 and early in 2000, make sure your paychecks are properly deposited in your bank account. If you have direct deposit, check your balance at your bank or ATM to make sure it reflects the most recent deposit. Save receipts as a backup.

---By late December, have enough cash on hand to cover your expenses for two weeks. Berg doesn't believe the banking system will fail, but worries that last-minute withdrawals could drain many ATMs of cash. Another reason to carry extra cash: Some retailers' check-cashing systems may malfunction, making it difficult to write checks for groceries.

---Toward the end of the year, pick up your dry cleaning. Berg says his dry cleaner, like many in large, metropolitan areas, uses an electronic retrieval mechanism that matches clothes to customers' phone numbers, not names.

Berg also has a list of don'ts for Y2K worriers:

---Don't try to set your personal computer forward to Jan. 1 to test its Y2K readiness. You may not be able to set it back. Instead, check the Internet site for your computer's manufacturer. Most have information on whether your PC is Y2K compliant. Check the Web sites for all your software to see if it needs to be updated before Y2K.

---Don't fall victim to Y2K-related fraud. Salomon Smith Barney brokers have heard of several instances in which con artists used a Y2K ruse to try and raid an individual's bank account. The flimflammers told their victims they needed account numbers and personal identification numbers (PINs) to correct a Y2K problem. "Any bank calling you should already know your account number," Berg says, "and you should never give out your PIN."


Y2K To Cause 10 Percent Of All Computers To Fail
By Steve Gold

A report just out from International Monitoring, a high-tech consultancy firm in London, says that its research has shown that all US imports will be badly hit by the Y2K problem.

Nick Gogerty of the company told Newsbytes that the firm's research has concluded that, along with a 15-day delay in all types of product shipments as a direct result of the Y2K problem, the Y2K issue is also likely to cause multiple and major problems for IT systems.

"Our calculations, which are conservative, show that around 10 percent of IT systems will be hit by the Y2K issue, to a greater or lesser extent," he said, adding that this is on top of an estimated 15 days delay in shipments on almost all products worldwide - a problem that will also be caused by the Y2K IT problem.

Gogerty explained the report's calculations; He said that basic IT programming principles suggest that, when Y2K problems are spotted by programmers and the software is reprogrammed, around 15 percent of the reprogramming will result in further bugs.

"It's kind of bugs creating bugs, if you will," he said, adding that, even assuming that all Y2K first generation bugs are solved, then there will be a second generation of bugs amounting to 15 percent of the original volume of software problems.

"Our research has reduced that figure to 10 percent, which we feel is a conservative figure," he said, adding that the firm's research took in data from 140 countries around the world.

"Using this data, we built an economic model that integrated data on those countries' technological infrastructures, multiple PC environments and the economic profiles of the countries concerned," he said.

"We assumed a best case scenario and drew up a smokestack model. The conclusion was that, even with massive Y2K remediation, there will still be major Y2K computer problems, allied with delays in transport of all commodities worldwide," he said.

Gogerty, who is originally from the US and a veteran of the London financial services industry, as are his colleagues within the consultancy, said that the general conclusion was that there will need to be a 15-day stockpile of all goods into the US to compensate for the transport delays caused by the Y2K problem.

International Monitoring's Web site is at http://www.intl-monitoring.com .


Equity Markets Could Face 5-Day Y2K Outages
By Steve Gold

Ongoing research from International Monitoring suggests that stock exchanges around the world could be in for a bumpy ride as the Y2K problem kicks in.

The consulting firm's research suggests that failure in IT systems, together with telecommunications and utility service outages will conspire to cause effective trading outages in large markets lasting as long as five days.

Nick Gogerty, a senior consultant with the London-based firm, said that the analysis took in details of Y2K preparation and infrastructure usage.

The research, he said, indicates that the world's 19 largest equity markets, as measured by market capitalization, are located in countries which could face telecommunications and utilities delays of up to five days.

For the research, the countries' technological profile was combined with an economic profile and a Y2K preparedness estimate based on internal and independent third party research.

The IM-Y2K Rating, the firm says, assumes that Y2K "fix" rates are maintained at current levels. The ratings have also been updated to reflect changes in national and private sector "fix" efforts, as they become available. The remaining estimates of unfinished or improperly finished Y2K fixes are then applied to a damage estimate scale.

The scale, known as the IM-Y2K rating, ranks countries from zero to nine, with nine being the worst case. The average IM-Y2K risk rating for the 19 countries was 4.4 IM-Y2K.

International Monitoring says that this 4.4 IM-Y2K score corresponds to a Y2K damage or delay estimate of 5 days without standard telecoms and/or utilities available. The damages or costs associated with such a delay, the firm notes, are not known.

According to the firm, it's important to remember that the average IM- Y2K Risk Rating presented in the report is an average figure, and has not been weighed relative to the equity value of the individual markets. This means that the outage scenarios vary significantly from country to country.

International Monitoring's Web site, where segments of the report can be reviewed and purchased, is at http://www.intl-monitoring.com .


Authorities Ignoring "Other" Y2K Problem
By David McGuire

With so much attention being focused on preparing critical computer systems for Y2K, far too little attention has been paid to the very real Y2K danger posed by cults, rogue states and domestic terrorists, according to a Washington-based crisis management firm.

"Terrorism is media," 28-year FBI veteran Robert Quigley told Newsbytes today. The goal of ringing in the millennium with a massive terrorist attack, has become a priority for both foreign terrorists and "homegrown" hate groups he said. Quigley is managing director for investigations and intelligence at GlobalOptions LLC, which today held a press conference to discuss the "other" Y2K problem.

Y2K will be a "high-threat time," GlobalOptions spokesperson William Livingstone told Newsbytes. "We don't think anyone is addressing the human side (of Y2K)," he said.

Beyond terrorist threats, GlobalOptions raised concerns about apocalyptic cult activities and elevated workplace violence that could accompany the date rollover. "People often times just short-circuit," Livingstone said.

Creating further potential problems is the fact that many Americans intend to travel to holy sites for the date rollover. With "plane-loads" of Americans visiting remote religious locations the lure to terrorists could be "irresistible," according to GlobalOptions.

According to GlobalOptions, to address the potential dangers, corporations should, among other things, establish Y2K command centers, identify possible risks and threats, and stock up on vital supplies and equipment.

On a similar note, with governmental computer systems moving ever closer toward total Y2K compliance, federal Y2K authorities have recently expressed concern that the gravest Y2K dangers will stem from public panic and unrest.

To prevent public disorder, state and federal Y2K authorities are kicking their community outreach activities into high gear.

One of the most visible manifestations of that push is the "Community Conversations" program, developed earlier this year by the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. Council Chair John Koskinen has attended community conversations in six states so far and spoke earlier this week at a discussion in Memphis, Tenn.


Feds Step Up Y2K Outreach Efforts
By David McGuire

Possibly the greatest Y2K danger still facing federal, state and local governments does not come from embedded chips and non- compliant systems, but rather from the potential panic that could accompany the date rollover. To prevent such an outcry from the public, state and federal Y2K authorities are kicking their community outreach activities into high gear.

One of the most visible manifestations of that push is the "Community Conversations" program, developed earlier this year by the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. Council Chair John Koskinen has attended community conversations in six states so far and spoke today at a discussion in Memphis, Tenn.

Koskinen has offered to attend at least one community conversation in every state, and as of today has plans to visit more than 25 states before the end of summer.

The conversations are the council's best means to ameliorate pubic fears, according to Koskinen.

"You can't just tell people `well, you know, don't worry,' because then they'll think there is a reason to worry," Koskinen told Newsbytes last week. The answer to avoiding a public frenzy on or around Jan. 1, 2000, is to put as much hard information as possible into the hands of the citizenry, he also said.

The conversations typically bring together the "key service providers" in a given community, including the phone and power companies as well as local government representatives and concerned citizens.

The events have a very local focus and when Koskinen attends one of the discussions his "role largely is supportive," Council Spokesperson Jack Gribben said.

The conversations that have taken place thus far have been well- attended and drawn strong local media coverage.

In a separate Y2K development, the President's Council still has received no reports of glitches associated with fiscal 2000. July 1 marked the start of fiscal year 2000 for many states.

Further information about the community conversations can be found on the President's Council Website at http://www.y2k.gov/community


Airline Y2K Prep 95 Percent Complete
By David McGuire

North American airlines have completed 95 percent of their Y2K compliance preparations, and are on track to complete all Y2K work well in advance of Jan. 1, 2000, according to the Air Transport Association (ATA).

The findings pleased government Y2K experts. "It's very positive news," Jack Gribben, spokesperson for the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion told Newsbytes today. "It's good to see that (the airlines) are making that kind of progress." "This is one of the areas that caught the attention of the public," Gribben added. "It's perceived to be a very automated (industry)."

But despite the strong progress made by airlines, they represent only one piece of the air travel equation, Gribben said. "It's not just airlines, it's air traffic control and airports."

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which is in charge of administering and overseeing air traffic control, has tentatively notified the President's Council that it has completed its work on the Y2K problem. The FAA is awaiting independent confirmation before making an official announcement, Gribben said.

The council expects to know more about the state of the nation's airports later this summer.

The ATA presented its findings today at a press conference at the National Press Club. Joining ATA representatives at the meeting was President's Council Chair John Koskinen.

The ATA, along with the Air Transport Association of Canada and the Regional Airline Association, maintains a Website devoted to airline Y2K issues. The site is located at http://www.aviationmillennium.org

The three organizations represent more than 100 US and Canadian airlines.

In a separate development, the President's Council announced today that communities in 18 states are set to hold Y2K "community conversations" during the month of July.

The council has stressed the need for the conversations as a means to ameliorate public fears and educate citizens about the state of Y2K readiness in their communities.


Oil & Gas Will Be Ready For Y2K
By David McGuire

It's a recurring theme in the Y2K compliance arena - the biggest danger to the nation's oil and gas supplies on Jan. 1, 2000 will stem from public hysteria, not downed or malfunctioning systems, industry and government leaders said today.

"If everybody waits till Dec. 31 to (buy gas)," it could seriously strain the delivery system, John Koskinen, chair of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion said at a press conference to discuss the findings of the third industry-sponsored survey on the Y2K readiness of the nation's oil and gas industries.

More than 93 percent of the nation's oil and gas companies expect to have their systems Y2K compliant by Sept. 30, 1999. And because the oil and gas industry maintains a "strategic reserve" that can last for several months if need arises, even significant system glitches should not interrupt the nation's fuel supply, said Ron Quiggins, director of Shell Services International's Year 2000 program.

"We are not a real-time industry," Quiggins said. The oil and gas industry is "not like the power industry where you lose power and you've lost it."

To address the very real dangers that could arise due to public ignorance about Y2K, Koskinen and the Council have kicked their "community conversation" program into high gear. Koskinen will visit more than 20 states in coming weeks, helping state and local governments facilitate outreach efforts, he said.

"You can't just tell people 'well, you know, don't worry,' because then they'll think there is a reason to worry," Koskinen told Newsbytes. The answer to avoiding a public frenzy on or around Jan. 1, 2000, is to put as much hard information as possible into the hands of the citizenry, Koskinen said.

Koskinen remains concerned that some of the less populated states have not been very aggressive in their outreach efforts, he said.

Also, while the Council wants to ameliorate public fears, it is striving to make sure people do not become complacent about Y2K. Maintaining a public attitude that lies somewhere between unfounded panic and cockeyed optimism is a difficult challenge, Koskinen said

The oil and gas industry is concentrating most of its remaining efforts on addressing supply chain issues, industry insiders said today. The industry's supply chain remains its weak link, and as of May is less than 70 percent Y2K compliant.

Because a substantial amount of US oil supplies come from outside the country, there had been some concern about whether the nation's primary foreign oil suppliers would be ready for Y2K. Of the five foreign nations that supply the US with most of its oil - Canada, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela - Canada and Mexico have made the strongest progress toward Y2K compliance, Koskinen said.

Only one of those countries, Nigeria, remains a major question mark, he added.